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Monday,
July 23,
2007, #138 (1405) On July 13, the head of the government’s administration announced that a commission to determine South Ossetia’s status had been established, and would be chaired by Prime Minister Zurab Noghaideli. Despite a recent warning to “make haste slowly” in South Ossetia by the International Crisis Group (ICG), Tbilisi is making it clear that South Ossetian policy is guided by the principle ‘full steam ahead.’ One of the specific recommendations to Tbilisi in ICG’s June 7 report on the conflict region was to, “Focus on restoring territorial integrity through gradual confidence building, not rapid status determination.” But President Saakashvili is making it clear that this will not be the modus operandi. Twelve days after the ICG report was released, Saakashvili started using his ‘clock is ticking’ rhetoric. But even before that, the fast-paced turn of events regarding South Ossetia could be noticed by anyone paying even half-attention. It all publicly began about four short months ago when the idea of the temporary administrative unit was first introduced during the president’s annual address to the nation on March 15. Three weeks later, parliament had given the president the power to establish the new administration, a week later Dmitry Sanakoyev was announced the head of it and throughout May and June Sanakoyev was paraded to one international event after another to drum up support for their new project. In mid-June, at a news conference after the GUAM summit, Saakashvili began warning de facto South Ossetian president Eduard Kokoity that time was ticking, creating a real urgency in the situation. “I want to warn comrade Kokoyev [Kokoity] that his time is coming to an end. We are beginning talks with the government of Dmitry Sanakoyev about autonomy and everything else….This issue will be resolved in the coming few months….We do not intend to put this issue off forever because all patience has its limits…” Five days after the July 13 announcement of the commission to determine the region’s status, Saakashvili commented on the new mission, again expressing urgency. “I also ask that we take into account the fact that there is a certain time frame here—we all must work day and night and we all must work in such a way that each and every person sees the difference,” he said. As far as status goes, in the GUAM press conference in June, Saakashvili promised, “We will give Ossetians everything they have ever dreamt of in Georgia.” A July 20 statement prepared by the South Ossetian side of the Joint Control Commission protested the suggestion that status needed to be determined. They asserted it was determined in referendums in 1992 and 2006 where the South Ossetian people voted for independence. According to some media sources, deals have already been sealed between Georgia and Russia on the South Ossetian issue. Many analysts claimed that since the Putin-Saakashvili meeting on the sidelines of the CIS, the strong rhetoric was toned down. The attack is turned more against Kokoity, calling him and his gang “criminal elements.” A June 22 article in the Georgian newspaper Rezonansi claimed such a plan had been made. The paper claimed that Moscow had agreed to support a Sanakoyev-based administration and that soon, de facto prime minister Yuri Morozov would be replaced by someone on Sanakoyev’s team. The newspaper also alleged that the Russian Prosecutor General’s office may instigate embezzlement charges against Kokoity for the apparent disappearance of funds that were given to the region for economic rehabilitation. Other media have claimed that the transition of power will resemble that of Adjara’s, when rebel leader of the Adjara Autonomous Republic Aslan Abashidze was allowed to seek political asylum in Moscow and the region was returned to Georgia without resistance and bloodshed. In a conference in South Ossetia over the weekend Sanakoyev maintained friendly rhetoric, assuring that Russia would remain part of the region’s future. “We will maintain close ties with Russia and its North Ossetian Republic,” he said. And on July 20, Russian chief negotiator for South Ossetia issues allowed for the possibility that Sanakoyev could participate in the discussions of the JCC quadripartite as long as he didn’t represent a ‘side.’ Though nothing is certain in politics from one day to the next, it appears things are going Tbilisi’s way in the region—and most would never have imagined, even six months ago, they could be in this kind of situation. |
South Ossetia Moves Full Speed Ahead