The Messenger #146 (1413) - Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics could bring conflict, but also change

Thursday, August 2, 2007, #146 (1413)

Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics could bring conflict, but also change

Georgia earnestly supported Russia's bid for the 2014 Winter Olympics. Tbilisi may now be regretting that.

It looks as if Russia is using the Olympics as cover to snake its economic limbs into Abkhazia. Moscow officials suggest that successful Games in adjacent Sochi will require some preparatory cooperation from Abkhazia.

There are reports of big cement factories going up with Russian backing; the Sokhumi airport, some suggest, could receive Games guests as the Sochi airport overflows.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Zhukov floated the notion of Abkhaz contributions, much to the secessionist leaders' elation. Bagapsh's de facto government is obviously eager to grab a share of the Olympic cash kitty, sure that Russia won't let Georgia regain control of a territory where it has invested millions in immovable assets.

"We believe that economic interests automatically will lobby Abkhaz political interests. Big business is interested in stability," said the de facto Abkhaz foreign affairs minister, Sergey Shamba.

Georgian officials are having none of it, and they're not pulling any rhetorical punches. Speaker of Parliament Nino Burjanadze warned Moscow that if they aren't careful about Abkhazian participation, the 2014 Winter Olympics could go the same way as the 1980 Summer Olympics in Moscow. Those Games were heavily boycotted in response to the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan the year before.

On July 30, deputy foreign minister Giorgi Manjgaladze met with representatives of the diplomatic corps in Tbilisi to remind them that any real estate contracts on separatist-controlled territory is illegal until Georgia restores its jurisdiction there. Anyone who flouts the law could face civil or even criminal prosecution, he said, requesting the diplomats to pass the message along to their countries' governments and business communities.

Tbilisi's protestations have only barely cooled off the investment fever. Moscow's man in Tbilisi, Vyacheslav Kovalenko, promised no investments without Tbilisi's input-but that could mean very little.

During Shevardnadze's administration, Russian companies repaired the railroad between Sochi and Sokhumi. Tbilisi was not happy. And nor was the Kremlin, it claimed. But after all, these were private businesses which decided to fix up a key transit link with the breakaway region-and what could Moscow do about that?

If only Putin could rein in Russia's intransigent business community.

The governor of Krasnodar province, where Sochi is, took things to another level by talking about the need to move Sochi residents to make room for Olympic infrastructure. And where would the displaced citizens go? Abkhazia, where land is cheap, was a suggestion.

While the governor's talk may not be wholly reflective of Moscow plans, his statement prompts worries that Russia is stepping up from an economic annexation to a demographic one. Could migrating Russians take up land abandoned during the war by fleeing Georgians? Maybe, but there's no reason to assume Russians actually want to move there, much less be relocated south to a conflict zone so a stadium can go up in their former yards.

Perhaps most noteworthy about the Olympics quarrel is that the conversation is being held at all. The event is seven years away, and while preparations begin now, the discourse assumes the status quo will endure at least until the torch reaches Sochi. And while that's likely, Putin's winning bid for the Games offers opportunity for Tbilisi.

Observers are mulling over the influence the Games may have on conflict resolution; it's a cheery image to think of Georgian and Abkhaz athletes winning medals together in Sochi. The money and scrutiny the Olympics bring can indeed be a force for change: Beijing has rebuilt vast swaths of the city, loosened restrictions on the media, and generally worked to make life appear more pleasant as it strives to show the world next year how far China has come.

As people around the world tune in to the Sochi Games, they'll be hearing about a frozen conflict just south of the skiers and skaters. If a political settlement is reached by then, everyone stands to gain. If not, millions of pairs of eyes could encourage one.

The last Winter Olympics in Turin, however, had the lowest television ratings ever. Summer Olympics have always been the real draw. Perhaps Georgia will need to wait for 2016.