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Friday,
August 3,
2007, #147 (1414) The last meeting between the two presidents was early June, during a CIS summit in St Petersburg. Saakashvili walked out of that one proclaiming that Russia would soon be lifting its embargo on Georgian goods. It hasn't. That will certainly come up in the presidential duologue, but the full agenda is still a matter of speculation. In fact, the meeting couldn't possibly last long enough for the participants to broach every matter of contention. Observers will be looking not at the product, but the process. The meeting, if it happens, will be a sign that relations are improving. Tbilisi, for its part, has remained tight-lipped about the whole thing. Only State Minister of Conflict Resolution Davit Bakradze commented, saying that Georgia is always ready for a meeting like this. The issue of Abkhazia and South Ossetia will undoubtedly underlie every statement made throughout any talk. Georgia likes to think that Moscow is shooting itself in the foot by propping up the separatist regimes. If Russia, following a Kosovo 'precedent,' recognized Abkhazian and South Ossetian independence and accelerated its creeping annexation of the territories, how will that strengthen its position in the Caucasus? Surely it would be a reminder that Russia has not lost its imperial potency, but all pretensions of a law-respecting international partner will fall away. Moscow has run the gamut of available methods as it seeks to influence Georgian policy. We've seen political pressure, military threats, and outright economic warfare. Tbilisi, with its Western support, has managed to keep its head above water. But doing so has involved, at times, a complex ballet (and at other times, ill-advised and crude bluster). Now, a conversation between the presidents would be set against a complicated background. Moscow is running out of practical tools of persuasion, and Tbilisi tires of ceding political ground. And there is just a year to go before presidential elections in both Georgia and Russia, where Putin presumably will maneuver an heir to victory (the alternative is staying on himself after a few redactions to the constitution). In Georgia, Saakashvili's own reelection is in little doubt, but he is seeking an overwhelming majority to feed into his considerable political capital. Arguably, both administrations would benefit politically from an active enemy on the doorstep. But a final victory in peaceful conflict settlement would be a far greater prize, and legacy, for Saakashvili's government than merely standing its ground against a bullying Russia. The Chancellery would no doubt burn the candles at both ends arranging tactics for the meeting. The embargo, while a sure topic, shouldn't be the focus of the president's remarks. Leave that to the ministers; they've already announced there's no need to bend over backwards to help Russians get at our beloved wine, and they're right. The major issue to tackle is conflict resolution, and what Tbilisi can extract from the Kremlin in return for acquiescing to Russian WTO accession. This meeting is an unlikely forum, however, for any breakthroughs. The time is still ahead when Russia and Georgia will see eye-to-eye on the conflict resolution. Speaker of Parliament
Nino Burjanadze said that the South Ossetia conflict could come to an
end within months if Russia would take a positive-or even neutral-role.
That's a slight, but an offer too. It's the Kremlin's move, but don't
expect to see them make it yet.
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Meeting with
Putin would be a small step forward