Thursday, August 9, 2007, #151 (1418)

Accusations fly after missile hits

By Nino Mumladze


They came from here, says Saakashvili

All evidence points to Russia, Tbilisi officials say. Preliminary investigation results released by the Georgian Foreign Affairs Ministry pinpoint both the aircraft and missile involved in the August 6 missile incident as being of "Russian origin," brushing aside Moscow insinuations that Georgia targeted itself.

"A preliminary investigation has revealed that a Su-24 military aircraft, manufactured in Russia, launched a Russian-made Raduga Kh-58 anti-radar tactical guided missile deep in Georgian territory on August 6, 2007. The aircraft breached Georgian airspace from the territory of the Russian Federation as verified by NATO-standard radar records," read the August 7 report from the ministry, which included radar images of aircraft flight times and trajectory.

According to the ministry's version of events, at 19:30 local time on August 6, two aircraft intruded more than 75 kilometers into Georgian airspace before launching an air-to-ground guided missile in the Gori district, next to the South Ossetian conflict zone, striking near the village of Tsitelubani.

The missile did not explode. If it had, casualties would have been likely among the local residents living within 30 meters of the impact site.

Giga Tatishvili of the Georgian military told Rustavi 2 that the blast radius of the missile could be from 500 to 800 meters.

Secessionist authorities in South Ossetia had a different account. It was Georgian airplanes, they said, which fired a missile at South Ossetian territory under their control.

Russia has denied any involvement whatsoever, but is clearly insinuating that Tbilisi orchestrated the incident to sabotage Joint Control Commission (JCC) peace talks on South Ossetia. The Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry claimed in an August 7 statement that it wasn't Su-24 attack planes involved, but rather Su-25 aircraft. Georgia flies Su-25s.

On August 8 Dmitry Medoyev, the South Ossetian envoy in Moscow, reiterated his administration's claim that a Georgian Su-25 had dropped a missile on the breakaway region.

"…It's [an aircraft] in operational service in the Georgian air force," the Russian news agency RIA Novosti quoted Medoyev as saying. "Not only Georgian pilots fly these aircraft, but hired pilots as well-particularly Ukrainian," he added.

Medoyev went on to say the Su-25 dropped two missiles: the one near Tsitelubani village, and a second one near the village of Zakhori, in secessionist-controlled territory.

He said secessionist South Ossetian law enforcement agencies were "actively searching" for the missiles, but have not found it yet.

The Georgian military does not have Su-24 aircraft; nor do they possess the model of guided missile recovered in Gori district, the Georgian Foreign Affairs Ministry claims.

Speculation abounds.

The Russian missile was accidentally "ditched, not fired," wrote Reuters yesterday, after the pilot came under fire from South Ossetian separatist forces on the ground. Reuters based its report on comments from an anonymous Georgian official close to the investigation.

Later that day, an unnamed source inside the Georgian Interior Ministry confirmed to online magazine Civil Georgia that this was a version of events being considered by investigators.

It's a version that is obliquely supported by Medoyev's comments, as well as remarks from the Russian commander of the Joint Peacekeeping Forces in the conflict zone, Marat Kulakhmetov, who spoke of the jet coming under antiaircraft fire. His account differed, however, on the origin of the flight.

"The aircraft came into the conflict zone from the east. Then it turned in a southwest direction. Over the village of Gromi it came under fire from the South Ossetian side. This, it seems, scared the pilot and caused him to shoot off a rocket, and then fly to the northeast. According to local residents, the plane then flew in an eastern direction from where it came," Kulakhmetov told RIA Novosti. Georgian-controlled territory is to the east of South Ossetia.

Georgian experts who think an accidental jettisoning is a viable possibility presume that South Ossetian militia forces fired a Strela shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missile against a Russian Su-24 plane, prompting a panicky jettisoning of the missile, which would explain the weapon's failure to explode.

Irakli Aladashvili, Georgian military expert and editor of military affairs and analysis magazine Arsenal, says there could be a variety of reasons for a missile to malfunction, "from an expired validity date to this suggested accidental ditching."

But he points to eyewitness accounts of an engine plume in the missile's path as evidence the missile was launched at a target.

Aladashvili suggests a nearby radar station could have been the target-but the pilot missed. The Russian military is training in North Ossetia right now, he adds.

"Compared with the Kodori attack on March 11, this was a more expensive missile itself, but less professionally launched," he says.

Aladashvili says that unlike previous years, Georgian specialists have no problem detecting airspace violations now, and has the means to retaliate with force. But there's no coordinated air defense system, he says

While the opposition political opposition were loudly critical of Georgia's Defense Ministry for not shooting down the intruder, the international community largely praised what US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza called Georgia's "laudable" response.

"Clearly, we condemn any attack on Georgian sovereign territory," Bryza said.

"We can't say who did what at this point. We have no indication that Georgia targeted itself. That is for sure," he said in an interview with Reuters.

The US diplomat dismissed Russia's accusation of Georgian complicity in the incident, and advised the Kremlin to tone down its rhetoric.

"Such rhetoric, claiming that Georgia attacked itself, is not at all helpful. It raises tensions," Bryza said. "We have not seen a shred of evidence to suggest that is what happened."

The OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos, also expressed his serious concern over the incident.

"We are looking at information about the circumstances very carefully and due to its importance, we request the most accurate and urgent report on the facts," his statement read.

Meanwhile, Georgia wants the UN Security Council to hold an emergency session on the air strike incident, Foreign Minister Gela Bezhuashvili announced at an early evening press conference yesterday.

Bezhuashvili cited an initial report from a joint fact-finding team on the ground, staffed by Georgian, Russian, Ossetian and OSCE representatives, as evidence to back up Tbilisi's claims.

"They have actually confirmed the fact that the jet came from the north [where the border with Russia lies] …even the Russian experts involved in this group have confirmed it," the minister said.



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