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Wednesday,
August 22,
2007, #160 (1427)
The United Nations is determined to once and for all resolve the situation in Kosovo, particularly the question of recognizing Kosovo's independence from Serbia. This is a controversial issue, with players and observers weighing in from around the world on the justice and ramifications of independence for Kosovo. Kosovo, mostly Muslim ethnic Albanians, is a de jure but functionally independent region of Serbia, mostly Christian Orthodox. A civil confrontation based on ethnic and religious intolerance flared at the end of the 90s. Both sides blame each other for starting the violence, which ended in horrific ethnic cleansing carried out by the Serbs. The international community tried to interfere diplomatically, but in vain. Only after US-led forces militarily suppressed Belgrade's actions did the violence stop. Milosevic, leader of the Serb nationalists, was taken to The Hague for trial and died before sentencing, while Kosovo's status made it onto the world's agenda. Skipping ahead, the UN began this summer with the Ahtisaari plan, which would have granted Kosovo full independence and looked set to go ahead. Russian (and Serbian) opposition ultimately stalled talks, against strong efforts from the US and most European countries. Experts were similarly divided, with some worried about sparking more violence, and other critics stressing a possibly dangerous precedent. Of course there is a risk of renewed confrontation. But the risk to worry about is independence for Kosovo triggering ethnic and religious confrontations around the world; now sleeping, they can be woken up in a dangerous way. Russia, a main backer for Serbia, has threatened that recognition of Kosovo's independence would open the way for separatist regimes in the former Soviet Union to be officially recognized by Moscow. There are four: Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, Transdniester in Moldova, and Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan. In a delicately paradoxical situation, Georgia and Russia find their interests coinciding. Moscow openly condemns the Western push for Kosovo independence. Georgia doesn't want to explicitly support Serbia for fear of upsetting Washington, but Tbilisi sees a distinct threat to its territorial integrity in Kosovo's independence and the precedent it would set. And, regardless of protestations to the contrary, it would be a precedent. Georgian officials are doing their best to establish divergences between the Kosovo situation and that in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In Kosovo, they say, the Serb majority ethnically cleansed the Albanian people living in the region. Albanians were forced out from their homes, which were burnt down or expropriated. Now, they're coming back with their political rights protected. In Abkhazia, it's all the other way around. The Abkhaz minority of about 60 000, supported by Russia, carried out an ethnic cleansing of the Georgian majority, forcing 300 000 to leave their homeland. They've yet to return, and it was the Georgian homes which were burnt down or snatched up by predatory buyers invited to Abkhazia by the separatists. The UN plan aimed not only to recognize Kosovo independence, but also to return the displaced population of the province-regardless of ethnicity or religion, and without preliminary conditions. That would mean that their homes must be repaired and returned. Any Kosovo precedent for Abkhazia, then, must also mean that, before all else, Georgians should return to the region to reclaim their homes and possessions. The Abkhaz separatists and their Kremlin backers ignore this facet of the plan. The international
community and UN officials should, of course, reconsider their approach.
Does it have any mechanisms or contingency plans in place to deal with
a domino effect following Kosovo independence? Nationalistic conflicts
tug at their chains in the Balkans, the Caucasus, in Europe, South Asia
and China, and Africa. In Russia alone, there are several dozen ethnic,
political and administrative. There's no telling how precariously balanced
those hotspots are. What if they all explode at the same time? There
are many unanswered questions. |
Kosovo:
a dangerous experiment