|
Friday,
August 24-September 7,
2007, #162 (1429)
Leading political analysts are often called upon for a spot of fortune telling, which is something of an ungrateful business. The best way out of making a tough call, naturally, is ambiguity. Russia has many fine examples of the art of equivocation, but one pundit threw caution to the wind recently and spelled out a host of definitive prophecies. We present the headings from Komsomolskaya's article "Pravda v Gruzii" [Truth in Georgia], an interview with Tbilisi-born Sergey Karaganov, now a top Russian political analyst: "The world has gone upside down;" "How to win against America in anti-missile defense;" "Georgia will not get back Abkhazia;" "Will America strike Iran?" "Russia has already won in the Balkans;" "One should be afraid of China." At the end of the 90s, Karaganov says, the West believed that capitalism and liberal democracy-of the American and European variety-had triumphed across the world. A premature verdict, he continues, as the US suffers political damage in Iraq, diminishing its world influence, and Europe mires itself in the EU-enlargement question. New giants of capitalism are coming to the forefront, he claims: China and Russia. Karaganov argues that the West is on an offensive against Russia because it feels itself weakening-a counterattack, not an attack. He equates Western feelings of weakness with Russia's position in the 90s. Karaganov predicts that the Americans will exit Iraq entirely in seven or eight years, and recover their strength. The EU's apparent malaise and political crisis will also be overcome, he says, warning that rising powers should be careful to avoid conflict. "[Russia] should not confront the West and the US, because it will redirect our resources and we would be forced to lag behind. Ten years from now we will be competing with Asian countries," Karaganov says. "The world was deceived by America's claim to be the sole superpower in the world. In the coming ten to thirty years, the center of economic strength will be concentrated in Korea, India, Japan and China," he continues. He claims that the US wants Russia's resources to be controlled by international corporations, to impede the Kremlin's political goals. There's no chance of that, he said, criticizing Russia's free-wheeling privatizations in the 90s. Moscow has lost the Baltic states and Poland from their sphere of influence, he argues, with those countries now following the beat of America's drum. "On the other hand," he says, "with certain countries among the new members of EU we have perfect relations. These are Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, Czech Republic and Slovakia." Karaganov dedicated his most special prognostication to Georgia. Within 15 years, he prophesied, Abkhazia would become its own state in everything except, perhaps, international recognition. In contrast to today, it would have its own entirely effective institutions, court system, and a full-fledged mentality of nationalism. He pegs the chances of Abkhazia returning to Georgian control at a big, fat goose egg. He goes on, and on, and on. Moldova will take back Transdniester but with an autonomous status. The US might attack Iran, and Russia should do everything to keep Tehran from getting nuclear weapons. Russia has won in the Balkans, and with Kosovo. China is no threat to Russia. Karaganov's pronouncements
are interesting, mostly because they serve Moscow's neo-imperialistic
ambitions. He trumpets Russia's power, overplaying its real significance.
Russia loves to believe that it is still tussling with the West, and
the US particularly, but it's been relegated to a third-tier concern
in most American minds. But ideologues like Karaganov keep the illusion
cranking along, maintaining support for President Putin and, by extension,
his anointed successor. |
Russian
political analyst-cum-soothsayer tells what will be-or what the Kremlin
wants to be?