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Thursday, October 18, 2007, #199 (1466)
Politicians, pundits and even a few voters are looking anxiously to November 2. That is when the United National Council, which includes most of the country’s serious opposition parties, promises the biggest protest rally the country has seen in years. There is a lot riding on the turnout. The administration is doing its best to preemptively dismiss the importance of the event, correctly nothing that Tbilisi frequently hosts demonstrations of all stripes and colors. “I can see neither novelty nor danger in the existing situation,” Levan Ramishvili, director of the pro-government Liberty Institute, said to the newspaper 24 Saati. If the turnout is underwhelming, then this season’s opposition campaign is hopelessly sunk. The benchmark will be the six or seven thousand demonstrators who turned out on September 28, the day after ex-minister Irakli Okruashvili’s controversial arrest. The United National Council is working ferociously to drum up support in the regions. With the benefit of over a month of organization and preparation, they will need to beat the turnout of the nearly spontaneous September 28 rally to be successful. If the opposition can do that, they can then claim both momentum and real public support in their push for earlier elections and a handful of electoral reforms. They seem confident. The government will have a front-seat view of the action on November 2, says Conservative MP Kakha Kukava, a prominent opposition representative. “Just look out the parliament building’s windows and you will see the number of the people who will attend the November 2 protest,” Kukava promised the ruling party, according to the newspaper Akhali Taoba. Opposition organizers allege that spooked authorities are making moves to derail the event. “There are plans to block the streets and halt the transportation in Tbilisi,” exclaimed People’s Party leader Koba Davitashvili to the newspaper Alia. There have been hints of abortive attempts of subterfuge. Earlier in the month, government officials bashed the opposition for intentionally scheduling their big rally to interfere with a purported NATO-related conference. Observers pointed out no one had announced the conference before the opposition picked their date, and the claims quietly slipped away. The president’s recent proposal to lower the vote threshold for parliamentary representation could be seen as a political gambit to take the wind out of the opposition’s sails. The move, long recommended by international bodies, is going over well with voters, who may feel the burden is now on the opposition to behave well enough to win themselves a solid presence in parliament. |
The opposition’s political momentum begins or ends on November 2