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Thursday, October 25, 2007, #204 (1471)
Russian news agency Regnum published a strange little article on October 21. Consisting almost entirely of a quote from a “competent source in Georgia,” the piece suggested that Tbilisi is plotting to assassinate its own anti-secessionist leader in breakaway South Ossetia. The goal, the unnamed source claims, is to provide an excuse for war and a distraction from the planned mass opposition rally on November 2 in Tbilisi. The purported target, Dmitry Sanakoyev, is the head of a Tbilisi-backed alternative administration in South Ossetia. His mission since his appointment this spring has been to woo Ossetians away from the separatist regime, going to work on its clannish support structure and sprucing up Georgian-controlled portions of the conflict zone with development projects. The Regnum story offered no evidence or support for the conspiracy theory, and the claim was promptly dismissed as baseless by Georgian politicians. It was too much even for the virulently anti-government campaigners here: opposition leader Goga Khaindrava made it clear that while his allies may have differences with the president, they know that Saakashvili would not do something so destructive. Indeed, the idea makes little sense. If Tbilisi wanted to sabotage the November 2 protest, there are easier ways, like simply closing roads into the capital. So, who fed the fake story to Regnum? Probably not Tbilisi. The story would bring attention to the Sanakoyev effort, but there are better ways. It could be a convoluted way of baiting the opposition into making outlandish remarks in support of the claim, but there are already the unsupported accusations made by some opposition politicians that the Russian missile falling near a Georgian village on August 6 was actually Saakashvili craftily bombing his own country. The South Ossetian separatist regime is a more likely culprit. They spent most of the summer crying wolf about an impending ‘peace march’ of Georgian anti-secessionist campaigners on their de facto capital. It never happened. The separatist regime benefits from inflaming tensions and playing the besieged: it ensures attention from its Moscow patrons, and keeps its Ossetian subjects cowed. Or it could be Dmitry Sanakoyev himself. If he were unhappy with the money, attention and security that Tbilisi is providing him (his administration is getting GEL 9.9 million in funding next year, down from GEL 13.3 million in 2007), sneaking this story into the press would guarantee protection from the Georgian government. The story, however, was below Regnum’s standards (not to mention journalistic ones). That makes it seem likely someone pushed the news agency into running the story—and no one in Georgia would have that sort of influence. Someone in Moscow would. The story could serve the Kremlin’s interests in any number of ways: by throwing mud to discredit Tbilisi; by heightening tensions in South Ossetia while the Saakashvili administration may be politically vulnerable; by offering the Georgian political opposition something to use against the president; or even providing cover for their own attempt to kill Sanakoyev. Propaganda wars are a confusing business. |
Who would fake an assassination plot?