The Messenger #144 (1411) - Vilnius conference illustrates disconnect in conflict resolution attitudes

Tuesday, July 31, 2007, #144 (1411)

Vilnius conference illustrates disconnect in conflict resolution attitudes
By M. Alkhazashvili
(Translated by Diana Dundua)

Attention paid is not progress made, at least for the frozen conflicts in the South Caucasus. A conference in Lithuania last week served only to confirm the point.

The event was organized by the Geopolitical Research Center in Vilnius, together with the St Petersburg-based International and Regional Policy Center. Conference topics roved over an array of conflict issues, with Abkhazia and South Ossetia taking the limelight among conflicts in the post-Soviet space.

At the conference, Georgian Ambassador to Lithuania Davit Aptsiauri painted a relatively optimistic picture, insisting that there are not frozen conflicts in the South Caucasus, but rather "frozen problems." There's been many missed possibilities, Aptsiauri said, and now's the time to jettison stereotypes and push forward with direct dialogue.

"Georgia is actively developing and together with it Abkhazia and Ossetia can achieve serious goals," said Aptsiauri.

The Georgian ambassador delivered only soft blows to the omnipresent bugbear of the frozen conflicts.

"In this situation, there is a member of the large family that inappropriately behaves," said Aptsiauri.

European Parliament Member (and former Lithuanian head of state) Dr. Vytautas Landsbergis, however, did not restrain himself from criticizing Russia's role in the conflicts, saying that there was no place for Moscow in settlement talks.

"Russia is interested in being in the Caucasus, and thus it does not have the right to be in the role of the third country while settling conflicts between Georgia and South Ossetia and Abkhazia," said Landsbergis, as quoted by Regnum. "Russia plays the game that is more profitable for it."

Russia wants to maintain the uneasy status quo in Georgia's breakaway provinces, Landsbergis said, which are currently convenient places for murky business deals.

The European MP said the situation would improve if the UN filled Russia's boots, but Moscow has so far demonstrated no intention to cede its role. The future of the Caucasus lies with the EU, said Landsbergis-but for neighbors to live together, domestic quarrels need to be sorted out first.

Russia has its own arguments. Nikolai Mezhuev of the Centre for Transboundary Research in St Petersburg talked of polar perspectives on Russia's role in the frozen conflicts.

There those who say Russia is not suited to be a mediator in post-Soviet conflict resolution, Mezhuev said, and then there are the representatives of secessionist South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Transdniester who feel rather strongly that Russia is an appropriate mediator.

"It's a pity that it's just impossible to reconcile these two different positions," Mezhuev said.

He went on to say that Russia is only after the effective and peaceful development of neighboring states, and Moscow therefore has a natural role in helping to solve conflicts peacefully.

He's right that Russia will invariably take part in conflict settlement in the Caucasus. Peaceful resolution is impossible without Russian cooperation as a sincere mediator-but we've yet to see that.

Tbilisi is not about to wait for the Kremlin to have a change of heart. While there are suggestions that two frozen conflicts on its periphery do not entirely rule out NATO accession for Georgia, they're certainly not doing Georgia's westward-looking ambitions any favors.

Kestutis Krisciunas, an advisor to the Lithuanian defense minister, is sure that resolution must precede membership.

"For NATO, as well as for the EU, it's important to have order on the borders. If there are problems on Georgia's borders, it will be very difficult to accept the country in the organization. Because of this we want Georgia to solve the conflicts peacefully and we will do our best to help it," explained Krisciunas, according to Regnum.

A Georgian representative to the conference, Dr. Giorgi Khutsishvili, concurred.

"Formally, it's not written that the unarranged conflicts can interrupt the country's NATO integration but if Georgia enters the organization, Abkhazia and the South Ossetia territories will be announced as NATO space as well," he said.

According to Khutsishvili, money is the answer. The big economic development projects which both conflict sides are intensively drumming up will be fuel for the drive down the bumpy road to conflict settlement, he suggested. If the projects flounder, though, the process could stall.

"If these projects aren't offered from the US or European States, stagnation will carry on in the Caucasus," said Khutsishvili.

For all the talk in Vilnius, there was, unsurprisingly, little consensus. That same lack of agreement and real action in the South Caucasus threatens to drag on the situation in the conflict zones. Tbilisi is pushing hard in South Ossetia, but without substantive support from international players the road to resolution will be all the longer.