A bitterly protested inauguration looms
By M. Alkhazashvili (Translated by Diana Dundua)
Wednesday, January 16
Mikheil Saakashvili has won a reelection, but what he needs is a consensus.
Not one of Saakashvili’s six opponents have conceded victory to the president-elect; instead, they allege the vote was rigged to help the incumbent avoid a runoff.
Most international observers say the vote was essentially fair, though only with Central Election Commission chair has said with absolute certainty that the slew of documented irregularities could not have pushed Saakashvili below the 50 percent mark.
Saakashvili is now days away from his inauguration, which the opposition promises to protest.
It would be an awkward scene at best, unstable at worst: tens of thousands of voters rallying outside the swearing-in of a president who they are convinced is illegitimate.
There are no encouraging precedents to be found in the brief history of Georgian democracy. Saakashvili’s slim majority of the vote, 53 percent, was the closest any sitting president has come to admitting electoral defeat. Georgians, unconvinced of the effectiveness of elections, have become accustomed to overthrow as a means of regime change.
That sentiment, and the arrogance of the authorities which breeds it, must flicker out if Georgia is to achieve real stability and democracy.
The opposition insist they are pushing for change within constitutional means, but that is disingenuous. The state, whether or not the presidential election was rigged, is now bound to swear in the president-elect. There are few constitutional means of fulfilling the opposition’s demand to stop Saakashvili from a second term, short of him taking office then resigning all over again.
The opposition, convinced as they are of ongoing election fraud, are hardly ready to begin campaigning for the spring’s parliamentary elections. But if the government can convince the opposition the next elections will be free and fair where the presidential election was not—restructuring the widely-criticized Central Election Commission is a start—the streets could soon empty of protestors and fill with campaigners. That may be the only way of bringing furious opposition voters out from the cold, and into a safely democratic process.
Not one of Saakashvili’s six opponents have conceded victory to the president-elect; instead, they allege the vote was rigged to help the incumbent avoid a runoff.
Most international observers say the vote was essentially fair, though only with Central Election Commission chair has said with absolute certainty that the slew of documented irregularities could not have pushed Saakashvili below the 50 percent mark.
Saakashvili is now days away from his inauguration, which the opposition promises to protest.
It would be an awkward scene at best, unstable at worst: tens of thousands of voters rallying outside the swearing-in of a president who they are convinced is illegitimate.
There are no encouraging precedents to be found in the brief history of Georgian democracy. Saakashvili’s slim majority of the vote, 53 percent, was the closest any sitting president has come to admitting electoral defeat. Georgians, unconvinced of the effectiveness of elections, have become accustomed to overthrow as a means of regime change.
That sentiment, and the arrogance of the authorities which breeds it, must flicker out if Georgia is to achieve real stability and democracy.
The opposition insist they are pushing for change within constitutional means, but that is disingenuous. The state, whether or not the presidential election was rigged, is now bound to swear in the president-elect. There are few constitutional means of fulfilling the opposition’s demand to stop Saakashvili from a second term, short of him taking office then resigning all over again.
The opposition, convinced as they are of ongoing election fraud, are hardly ready to begin campaigning for the spring’s parliamentary elections. But if the government can convince the opposition the next elections will be free and fair where the presidential election was not—restructuring the widely-criticized Central Election Commission is a start—the streets could soon empty of protestors and fill with campaigners. That may be the only way of bringing furious opposition voters out from the cold, and into a safely democratic process.