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Lessons to be learned from Yerevan riots

Wednesday, March 5
Georgians are agape at the slew of similarities, superficial though they may be, between the Yerevan election riots and the protests here. The less outward semblances, however, give real cause for concern.

In Armenia, a ruling party candidate received 53 percent of the vote in disputed election results, narrowly avoiding a runoff against a challenger who won about a quarter of the vote. In Georgia, a ruling party candidate received 53 percent of the vote in disputed election results, narrowly avoiding a runoff against a challenger who won—yes—about a quarter of the vote.

Next came mass protests, tent cities and ultimatums.

The parallels, thankfully, stop there. As horrified many are at the events of November 7, at least the Georgian spetsnaz fired no live bullets, and demonstrators looted no shops. Potential post-election unrest never materialized here, even as tens of thousands took to the streets.

But some see other threads connecting the Armenia riots with Tbilisi demonstrations. Particularly in Russian media, but also in Georgia, commentators speculate—some more seriously than others—that the US staged a failed color revolution in pro-Moscow Armenia, while supporting the Georgian crackdown on anti-government demonstrators in pro-Washington Tbilisi.

There is also the OSCE/ODIHR. Its monitors initially said the Armenian election was “mostly in line” with democratic standards, a tick below their assessment of Georgia’s poll as “in essence” democratic.

But many observers say it’s plausible Serzh Sargsyan, the ruling party candidate, did not fairly win that extra three percent pushing him to an outright victory. The OSCE has now had its judgment rejected twice in quick succession not only by the losing opposition faithful in two South Caucasus neighbors, but also by the Georgian government (which put out an unapologetic rebuttal to a post-election OSCE report heavily critical of election day procedures).

With its credibility repeatedly called into question, will Georgian voters trust the OSCE to observe the next elections here?

The more radical Georgian opposition politicians, for their part, are making ominous noises about a replay of the Armenian riots should the Saakashvili administration rig the parliamentary elections in May. Those politicians may be deeply selfish and irresponsible, but they could also be prescient. Yerevan ought to serve as a warning.