Christian Democrats offer an excuse to move on
Thursday, June 12
The Christian Democrats’ memorandum, which they say must be adopted before the party becomes the first in the opposition to take its seats in parliament, will move the post-election situation forward by offering an easy-to-swallow pill for the government and much of the opposition.
A neutered, but more realistic, version of the opposition coalition’s laundry list of demands from January, the memorandum still includes some potentially significant proposals.
It seeks opposition control of financial oversight bodies, and across-the-board consensus on posts like the prosecutor general and the chair of the Central Election Commission.
It also asks for a guarantee that the government will not single-handedly amend the constitution, as the ruling party has done for four years and could continue to do for the next four years. It’s hard to see how that could be formalized, short of forever institutionalizing an opposition veto of amendments. But it is a sticking point for the opposition, some of whom fear the next big constitutional amendment is one shifting powers to the prime minister’s post as Mikheil Saakashvili’s final term as president ends.
And in what could have long-term ripple effects, the memorandum revisits the old proposal to directly elect mayors. That would give opposition parties an outside chance of establishing regional power centers, but more likely would just multiply enormously the number of election protests as the ruling party continues to dominate local government.
Taken together, the Christian Democrats’ memorandum represents incremental progress for the opposition, and could bring a few rebellious opposition MPs out of the woods by giving them something to publicly justify ending their boycott of parliament.
But any opposition gains would be tenuous. The government has demonstrated in the last two elections that they are not overly concerned with the spirit of the law; if these concessions become burdensome down the road, there is little reason to think they’ll stick.
That won’t stop the Christian Democrats from shaking hands with the government. The party’s leader has already said they will join parliament—after that, they can’t exactly be giving the authorities the hard sell.
At the end of the day, the Christian Democrats and half a dozen or more straggling opposition MPs will ultimately take their seats in parliament. The situation will look more pleasant, but the fundamentally lopsided balance of power will not change.
A neutered, but more realistic, version of the opposition coalition’s laundry list of demands from January, the memorandum still includes some potentially significant proposals.
It seeks opposition control of financial oversight bodies, and across-the-board consensus on posts like the prosecutor general and the chair of the Central Election Commission.
It also asks for a guarantee that the government will not single-handedly amend the constitution, as the ruling party has done for four years and could continue to do for the next four years. It’s hard to see how that could be formalized, short of forever institutionalizing an opposition veto of amendments. But it is a sticking point for the opposition, some of whom fear the next big constitutional amendment is one shifting powers to the prime minister’s post as Mikheil Saakashvili’s final term as president ends.
And in what could have long-term ripple effects, the memorandum revisits the old proposal to directly elect mayors. That would give opposition parties an outside chance of establishing regional power centers, but more likely would just multiply enormously the number of election protests as the ruling party continues to dominate local government.
Taken together, the Christian Democrats’ memorandum represents incremental progress for the opposition, and could bring a few rebellious opposition MPs out of the woods by giving them something to publicly justify ending their boycott of parliament.
But any opposition gains would be tenuous. The government has demonstrated in the last two elections that they are not overly concerned with the spirit of the law; if these concessions become burdensome down the road, there is little reason to think they’ll stick.
That won’t stop the Christian Democrats from shaking hands with the government. The party’s leader has already said they will join parliament—after that, they can’t exactly be giving the authorities the hard sell.
At the end of the day, the Christian Democrats and half a dozen or more straggling opposition MPs will ultimately take their seats in parliament. The situation will look more pleasant, but the fundamentally lopsided balance of power will not change.