Turkish initiative: questions
By Messenger Staff
Thursday, February 19
Not much detail is known of the Turkish initiative to create a Caucasus security and cooperation platform. Officials on all sides say merely that this document is a work in progress and experts are studying and preparing it.
This lack of information, obviously, ignites rumours, questions and guarded comment. The opinions of Georgian political analysts, therefore, are cautious and rather skeptical.
The Turkish initiative emerged right after the Russian attack on Georgia last August. The most important element of what was said then was the concept that only the countries of the Caucasus region should be involved in resolving their security issues. These countries were listed as Turkey, Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
The first question rose immediately. How about Iran? This country has been a key player in the region historically and maintains good relations with all five listed nations, more so than these countries do with each other. Russia and Georgia are in conflict, so are Armenia and Azerbaijan and so far there are not the best relations between Turkey and Armenia, apart from when they play football.
There is another crucial problem for Georgia. The platform is welcomed by Russia, the number one enemy of Georgia, whereas the EU and USA, the major entities under whose protection little Georgia maintained its statehood, are prevented from participating in the platform. These are the only forces which can counterbalance Russian pressure in the region or elsewhere. One can argue that Turkey is a NATO member and is striving to enter the EU, but the fact is that Russia’s open aggression and illegally-recognized puppet regimes on Georgian territory have emerged despite the Western leanings and contacts of the Turkish Government..
Georgian analysts are very cautious about the initiative. Soso Tsintsadze suggests, based on articles in the European press, that a coalition between Ankara and Moscow is envisaged, counterbalancing US interests and ignoring the EU (and Iran as well), in the Caucasus and Central Asian regions. We repeat that these suppositions are appearing due to the lack of information about this project. Georgian fantasy has no bounds and can ask naive questions such as, “How can Georgia and Russia cooperate when the latter is occupying around one quarter of its neighbour’s territory? How can Azerbaijan and Armenia cooperate when the latter is occupying around one quarter of its neighbour’s territory? What is the precondition of the platform to be successful?” Give us the facts and we will stop speculating!
Analyst Irakli Sesiashvili also thinks that Moscow and Ankara are trying to make a deal to establish their positions which might not make the rest of the countries very happy. We know Russia’s position: it tries to maintain its influence in the South Caucasus through military force. So far we know the Turkish standpoint as well. Of course it is that stability and cooperation should be achieved in the Caucasus. But how? Hopefully “not according to the Kremlin’s scenario!” as Sesiashvili exclaims.
The expert thinks the platform could be successful, but only if Turkey can persuade Russia to respect Georgia’s territorial integrity. Otherwise the project is doomed to fail. Tbilisi should of course be ready for all peaceful initiatives but it must make sure that its interests are fully considered.
This lack of information, obviously, ignites rumours, questions and guarded comment. The opinions of Georgian political analysts, therefore, are cautious and rather skeptical.
The Turkish initiative emerged right after the Russian attack on Georgia last August. The most important element of what was said then was the concept that only the countries of the Caucasus region should be involved in resolving their security issues. These countries were listed as Turkey, Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
The first question rose immediately. How about Iran? This country has been a key player in the region historically and maintains good relations with all five listed nations, more so than these countries do with each other. Russia and Georgia are in conflict, so are Armenia and Azerbaijan and so far there are not the best relations between Turkey and Armenia, apart from when they play football.
There is another crucial problem for Georgia. The platform is welcomed by Russia, the number one enemy of Georgia, whereas the EU and USA, the major entities under whose protection little Georgia maintained its statehood, are prevented from participating in the platform. These are the only forces which can counterbalance Russian pressure in the region or elsewhere. One can argue that Turkey is a NATO member and is striving to enter the EU, but the fact is that Russia’s open aggression and illegally-recognized puppet regimes on Georgian territory have emerged despite the Western leanings and contacts of the Turkish Government..
Georgian analysts are very cautious about the initiative. Soso Tsintsadze suggests, based on articles in the European press, that a coalition between Ankara and Moscow is envisaged, counterbalancing US interests and ignoring the EU (and Iran as well), in the Caucasus and Central Asian regions. We repeat that these suppositions are appearing due to the lack of information about this project. Georgian fantasy has no bounds and can ask naive questions such as, “How can Georgia and Russia cooperate when the latter is occupying around one quarter of its neighbour’s territory? How can Azerbaijan and Armenia cooperate when the latter is occupying around one quarter of its neighbour’s territory? What is the precondition of the platform to be successful?” Give us the facts and we will stop speculating!
Analyst Irakli Sesiashvili also thinks that Moscow and Ankara are trying to make a deal to establish their positions which might not make the rest of the countries very happy. We know Russia’s position: it tries to maintain its influence in the South Caucasus through military force. So far we know the Turkish standpoint as well. Of course it is that stability and cooperation should be achieved in the Caucasus. But how? Hopefully “not according to the Kremlin’s scenario!” as Sesiashvili exclaims.
The expert thinks the platform could be successful, but only if Turkey can persuade Russia to respect Georgia’s territorial integrity. Otherwise the project is doomed to fail. Tbilisi should of course be ready for all peaceful initiatives but it must make sure that its interests are fully considered.