Turkish-Armenian relations will change geopolitical picture in the region
By Messenger Staff
Thursday, October 1
On October 10 in Zurich Turkey and Armenia will sign an agreement on restoring diplomatic relations and the process of their reconciliation will begin. As a result very serious changes in the geopolitical scene in the region are to be expected.
Of course these will not happen in one day. The protocols signed in Zurich must then be ratified by both Parliaments and public opinion will have to be behind the move. There are certain forces in both of countries which are against it: for instance, Armenian MP Aram Saparian stated some time ago that this ratification would need one or two years.
There is another issue to consider: who is Yerevan expecting guarantees from? Some analysts suggest that Turkish-Armenian cooperation was initiated by Russia, but others say that the West has promoted it, the USA in particular. The Western media has reported that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be present at the signing ceremony, and that the reconciliation is a precondition for resolving the Nagorno Karabakh conflict.
The opening of the Turkish-Armenian border will affect Georgia as well. The Russian, Armenian and some of the Turkish media have begun speculating that energy transit routes which pass through Georgia might now be rerouted through Armenia. Of course this does not mean that the existing Baku-Ceyhan or Baku-Erzerum pipelines will be demolished but presumably the NABUCCO gas pipeline could be diverted in this way.
One direct result of the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement which we have already seen is that the construction of the Karsi-Akhalkalaki railway, which was opposed by Armenia, has slowed dramatically if not stopped completely. Armenia still hopes that opening the borders will revive the existing railway segment between Karsi and Gumri and this will make the Karsi-Akhalkalaki railway unnecessary. But such developments require immediate and satisfactory reconciliation between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the solution of the Karabakh problem. Ceasing the construction of the Karsi-Akhalkalaki railway is not yet being openly discussed.
In Georgia a certain concern has appeared a result of anti-Georgian campaigning in the Armenian media. The recommendation of Armenia’s President that Georgia should give the Armenian language regional status in Georgia because the Georgian population of Javakheti consists mainly of people of Armenian descent has caused particular comment. Our Armenian neighbours and brothers should realise that any kind of tension between two brotherly nations will be in the interests of others, and presumably fits the Russian scenario. It could create serious destabilisation in this region, as if it has not already seen enough.
Of course these will not happen in one day. The protocols signed in Zurich must then be ratified by both Parliaments and public opinion will have to be behind the move. There are certain forces in both of countries which are against it: for instance, Armenian MP Aram Saparian stated some time ago that this ratification would need one or two years.
There is another issue to consider: who is Yerevan expecting guarantees from? Some analysts suggest that Turkish-Armenian cooperation was initiated by Russia, but others say that the West has promoted it, the USA in particular. The Western media has reported that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be present at the signing ceremony, and that the reconciliation is a precondition for resolving the Nagorno Karabakh conflict.
The opening of the Turkish-Armenian border will affect Georgia as well. The Russian, Armenian and some of the Turkish media have begun speculating that energy transit routes which pass through Georgia might now be rerouted through Armenia. Of course this does not mean that the existing Baku-Ceyhan or Baku-Erzerum pipelines will be demolished but presumably the NABUCCO gas pipeline could be diverted in this way.
One direct result of the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement which we have already seen is that the construction of the Karsi-Akhalkalaki railway, which was opposed by Armenia, has slowed dramatically if not stopped completely. Armenia still hopes that opening the borders will revive the existing railway segment between Karsi and Gumri and this will make the Karsi-Akhalkalaki railway unnecessary. But such developments require immediate and satisfactory reconciliation between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the solution of the Karabakh problem. Ceasing the construction of the Karsi-Akhalkalaki railway is not yet being openly discussed.
In Georgia a certain concern has appeared a result of anti-Georgian campaigning in the Armenian media. The recommendation of Armenia’s President that Georgia should give the Armenian language regional status in Georgia because the Georgian population of Javakheti consists mainly of people of Armenian descent has caused particular comment. Our Armenian neighbours and brothers should realise that any kind of tension between two brotherly nations will be in the interests of others, and presumably fits the Russian scenario. It could create serious destabilisation in this region, as if it has not already seen enough.