Russian analyst on Ukraine

Influential Russian political analyst Alexander Dugin has discussed possible developments in Ukraine after the Presidential elections of January 17, 2010 and states that Ukraine is approaching a crucial point in its development.

In the first possible scenario presented by Dugin Yanukovich, an overtly Russian-oriented candidate, will win. He has the highest poll rating so far and thus most probably could be the winner. His main rival is and will be Yulia Timoshenko, who will never support Yanukovich as despite some disagreements with current President Yushchenko, she shares his basic values. In the event of a Yanukovich victory Timoshenko will try to revise the results of the elections, Yanukovich will not surrender as he did in 2004 and Ukraine will face a serious wave of confrontation. Dugin cannot predict what would be the outcome of such developments, however he is sure that if Yanukovich wins the Americans will start cooperating with him, hoping to move him in their direction. On the other hand, Moscow will also continue to work with Yanukovich to try and convince him to reverse Ukraine’s pro-NATO course.

In the second possible scenario Timoshenko wins. She is a very principled politician and will thus act aggressively towards the pro-Russian regions of Ukraine. She will not negotiate with Yanukovich and will not compromise. She will try to aggravate nationalist sentiments in the country and this might lead Yanukovich to start holding serious protest actions. Dugin thinks that these developments could trigger a situation in which Ukraine has two Presidents supported by two different parts of the country.

In the third scenario Yushchenko wins. In the two abovementioned scenarios Yushchenko would be completely excluded from the political scene, so in desperation he might attempt to establish a dictatorship. Therefore Dugin thinks that Ukraine is approaching a crucial stage which could possibly end in serious confrontation. Moreover there is the possibility of confrontation with Russia as well, which Russia would blame on Ukraine.

There is another opinion about the possibility of confrontation between Ukraine and Russia. The leader of the Donetsk Republic Liberation Organisation Alexander Tsulkan states that Ukraine is getting ready to start a war with Russia.