Economic optimism in Government circles

Georgia’s economic growth in 2009 will most probably be minus 4%, PM Nika Gilauri stated on December 22. Despite this contraction Gilauri is still making optimistic prognoses however, which have created doubts in some analysts.

Gilauri suggested that in the first quarter of 2009 economic decline was 5.9%, in the second quarter 10% and in the third quarter 1.3%. The premier promised 2 or 3% growth in the fourth quarter. These figures have given him grounds to be more optimistic as the contraction now seems to have reversed. However some analysts are sceptical about the PM’s optimism.

Former Minister of State Property Management in the Shevardnadze administration Professor Avtandil Silagadze thinks that economic development will be unstable, because the external factors driving it are unstable as well. He considers that Gilauri's optimism is based on the inflow of external support, but this alone will not be enough to turn things round.