What’s up in the North Caucasus?
By Messenger Staff
Friday, December 25
Moscow officials have once again started saying that there is possibility of a multiplicity of terrorist groups from Georgia entering Russia. Such statements serve different ends. On the one hand they are a threat against Georgia, as the Russian Duma has recently adopted amendments to its legislation allowing the country to take preventative military action in any country in the world if it believes its security is being threatened. The statements also seek to discredit Georgia in the eyes of the world by accusing it of harbouring terrorist groups. They are also a means of trying to persuade the Russian population and the world that the explosive situation in the North Caucasus is not the result of The Kremlin’s shortsighted policy of assisting separatism in neighbouring countries, thus creating precedents which northern Caucasus separatist forces can quote to their own advantage, but somehow Georgia's fault.
Russia's President Medvedev has called the North Caucasus his major domestic problem. He promised that his war on terrorism would continue but also made commitments to develop this region by attracting investment and tourism, creating jobs etc. As part of this initiative he will establish a new post whose holder will have responsibility for the North Caucasus.
From economic point of view the North Caucasus is one of the poorest regions of the Russian Federation. Unemployment in Ingushetia is 60% according to unofficial data, and in Chechnya it is 35% and Dagestan 30% according to the same sources. Some analysts state that these ihree entities are entirely dependent on the federal budget for funds. The people and leadership of those regions blame the central Russian Government for their underdeveloped economies and damaged infrastructure. Islamicisation and economic shortcomings make the situation in these regions very difficult. The poor economy may also have facilitated the Islamicisation process.
A US Professor of Political Science thinks that the situation in all the North Caucasus republics is very complicated, in particular in Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan. The threat to security, corruption, the shadow economy, military dictatorship and the ignoring of the rule of law have made these republics very weak entities.
After having its fight for independence suppressed at the end of 20th century Chechnya is recovering slowly and showing a certain resistance to the central Government. But the situation has become particularly complicated in Dagestan, where increased terrorist activity has been observed recently. To some extent the situation is also unstable in Ingushetia. Many people in these republics support establishing Sharia Law there, and although some people may not understand what this actually means they still support this idea as an alternative to the existing situation, which is rule of unlawfulness rather than rule of law.
Member of the Carnegie Centre in Moscow Alexey Malashenko thinks that if Moscow does not change its policy in the North Caucasus radical Islam could spread there. The question arises, what should be changed in the North Caucasus and how? Russian analysts and politicians claim that granting independence to Abkhazia and South Ossetia and recognising them should not set a precedent for the North Caucasus republics, but the reality is very different. The situation in the North Caucasus region has changed considerably since August 2008. Supporters of Kosovo independence very shortsightedly claimed that this would not lead to the recognition of other separatist regions but in just two years Russia has recognised Abkhazia and South Ossetia by directly citing Kosovo as a parallel. Now, however it looks as if Moscow's scheme has backfired. The domino effect the Communists used to talk about has begun, but these dominos are also boomerangs returning to the promoters of separatism.
Georgia is in a very difficult situation. On the one hand it can fell some satisfaction at seeing Russia reaping what it has sowed, but on the other hand separatism in Russia is not favourable for Georgia either. Paradoxically enough Russia and Georgia should take the same stand against separatism for their mutual interest, and Moscow is in the more difficult situation, because it encourages separatism in neighbouring countries while suppressing it on its own territory.
Georgia should not allow conflicts to develop between it and the North Caucasus republics. Nor should it take any step which could be labelled an anti-Russian action. However the Georgian leadership has already taken the very controversial step of creating a pan-Caucasus TV channel. The Russians have called this an anti-Russian channel. The Georgian administration does not see anything wrong with doing this, but some opposition leaders have criticised the Government for further irritating Russia. We do not yet know how the North Caucasus populations will respond to the channel, and although time will tell the situation is already quite complicated.
Russia's President Medvedev has called the North Caucasus his major domestic problem. He promised that his war on terrorism would continue but also made commitments to develop this region by attracting investment and tourism, creating jobs etc. As part of this initiative he will establish a new post whose holder will have responsibility for the North Caucasus.
From economic point of view the North Caucasus is one of the poorest regions of the Russian Federation. Unemployment in Ingushetia is 60% according to unofficial data, and in Chechnya it is 35% and Dagestan 30% according to the same sources. Some analysts state that these ihree entities are entirely dependent on the federal budget for funds. The people and leadership of those regions blame the central Russian Government for their underdeveloped economies and damaged infrastructure. Islamicisation and economic shortcomings make the situation in these regions very difficult. The poor economy may also have facilitated the Islamicisation process.
A US Professor of Political Science thinks that the situation in all the North Caucasus republics is very complicated, in particular in Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan. The threat to security, corruption, the shadow economy, military dictatorship and the ignoring of the rule of law have made these republics very weak entities.
After having its fight for independence suppressed at the end of 20th century Chechnya is recovering slowly and showing a certain resistance to the central Government. But the situation has become particularly complicated in Dagestan, where increased terrorist activity has been observed recently. To some extent the situation is also unstable in Ingushetia. Many people in these republics support establishing Sharia Law there, and although some people may not understand what this actually means they still support this idea as an alternative to the existing situation, which is rule of unlawfulness rather than rule of law.
Member of the Carnegie Centre in Moscow Alexey Malashenko thinks that if Moscow does not change its policy in the North Caucasus radical Islam could spread there. The question arises, what should be changed in the North Caucasus and how? Russian analysts and politicians claim that granting independence to Abkhazia and South Ossetia and recognising them should not set a precedent for the North Caucasus republics, but the reality is very different. The situation in the North Caucasus region has changed considerably since August 2008. Supporters of Kosovo independence very shortsightedly claimed that this would not lead to the recognition of other separatist regions but in just two years Russia has recognised Abkhazia and South Ossetia by directly citing Kosovo as a parallel. Now, however it looks as if Moscow's scheme has backfired. The domino effect the Communists used to talk about has begun, but these dominos are also boomerangs returning to the promoters of separatism.
Georgia is in a very difficult situation. On the one hand it can fell some satisfaction at seeing Russia reaping what it has sowed, but on the other hand separatism in Russia is not favourable for Georgia either. Paradoxically enough Russia and Georgia should take the same stand against separatism for their mutual interest, and Moscow is in the more difficult situation, because it encourages separatism in neighbouring countries while suppressing it on its own territory.
Georgia should not allow conflicts to develop between it and the North Caucasus republics. Nor should it take any step which could be labelled an anti-Russian action. However the Georgian leadership has already taken the very controversial step of creating a pan-Caucasus TV channel. The Russians have called this an anti-Russian channel. The Georgian administration does not see anything wrong with doing this, but some opposition leaders have criticised the Government for further irritating Russia. We do not yet know how the North Caucasus populations will respond to the channel, and although time will tell the situation is already quite complicated.