About Turkish-Russian relations

Turkish political analyst Sedat Laciner thinks that Turkey should very seriously take into consideration Russian interests in the Caucasus as there will be no stability or peace in the region if this is not done. Although the Soviet Union is no more existing Russia has colossal influence in the former Soviet area, and therefore while brokering peace in Karabakh Ankara should coordinate its efforts with Moscow, Laciner says.

The analyst suggests that Moscow’s interests in the Caucasus do not coincide with those of Baku and Ankara. This is why Karabakh conflict resolution attempts go nowhere. On the one hand Moscow does not want to betray its ally Armenia but on the other it is economically profitable for Moscow to cooperate with Baku and Ankara, so The Kremlin is in a quandary. As the biggest power in Caucasus Russia could take a more objective and independent position on Karabakh but it has taken Armenia’s side and with its silent consent 20% of Azeri territory is occupied. Ankara took the Azeri side in consequence as it is a brother nation and therefore the Turkish-Armenian border was closed in 1993.

The Turkish analyst thinks that Russia is playing a double game in the region. It ostensibly supports the improvement of Armenian-Turkish relations but at the same time Russian intelligence informs Baku about the details of the Turkish-Armenian negotiations. Thus it wants to both please Azerbaijan and create discord between Baku and Ankara. The Turkish analyst thinks that Turkish policy makers have not calculated the consequences of their policy correctly and before taking steps towards Yerevan they should have considered their relations with Azerbaijan.

In the current situation the analyst thinks it appropriate for Ankara to coordinate its moves with Baku. He also suggests that the current developments may lead to new political processes emerging in the Caucasus.