Georgia: Securing a Stable Future

Tbilisi/Istanbul/Brussels, 13 December 2010: Georgia has maintained political and economic stability despite the shock of the 2008 war with Russia, but the government needs to use the two years before the next elections to create public trust in democratic institutions by engaging in meaningful dialogue with the opposition over further reforms.

Georgia: Securing a Stable Future, the latest policy briefing from the International Crisis Group, examines the country as it heads toward a new electoral cycle in 2012-13. What is done will go a long way toward determining whether it progresses towards a truly stable, modern democracy or deteriorates into a fragile, pseudo-pluralistic and stagnating system.

“The government and political opposition movement need to use the two next years to create public trust in democratic institutions”, says Lawrence Sheets, Crisis Group’s Caucasus Project Director. “In discussions with the government the international community, including the European Union and the U.S., should prioritise issues such as fair elections, judicial reform and media transparency”.

Two and a half years after the war with Russia, Georgia’s political life is increasingly focused on preparations for the 2012-2013 elections and debates around divisions of power after a recent overhaul of the constitution. Much speculation centres on the role President Mikheil Saakashvili, who faces term limitations, will play after he leaves the presidency in 2013, and whether he will seek the newly empowered position of prime minister. He says he has made no decisions about his future, and the constitution was changed to promote reform, not benefit any individual.

The opposition blames the government for pushing through the constitutional amendments, which provide few new powers to the parliament, without allowing enough time for a proper public debate. The opposition is still largely divided, but few now desire change through street protests. This gives the government an opportunity to engage the opposition to reinforce democratic practices and legitimise the election process. Last month’s agreement with fifteen opposition parties to begin negotiations to overhaul the electoral code is a good start.

“Over the past two years, the government has done important reforms in the judiciary and the media, but more is needed to build public confidence in institutions”, said Medea Turashvili, Crisis Group Caucasus Analyst. “Many Georgians still perceive the judiciary to be dependent on the executive branch and overly respectful of the prosecution. The media is deeply polarised along political lines”.

The generous $4.5 billion Georgia received from international partners over three years to help post-war recovery is running out. With large repayments due in 2012-2013, Tbilisi is likely to face substantial challenges to cover the foreign debt and the trade deficit, just as the next election cycle begins, especially if there is no increase in foreign direct investment and exports.

“The government will be under much political and economic pressure in the coming years as it plans Georgia’s first democratic change of leadership since independence in 1991”, says Sabine Freizer, Crisis Group’s Europe Program Director. “Faithful implementation of reforms would end the country’s revolutionary period, secure the government’s domestic legitimacy and help guarantee continued international political and financial support”.