Elections on their mind

It is roughly one year until the next parliamentary elections but the build up and campaigning seems to have started already. Of course, so far the Georgian political spectrum has not finalised its pre election position but many things are being done with the elections in mind. Of course in this regard the ruling power has greater capabilities.

The target of the ruling national movement is clear. It has to secure its victory in the forthcoming parliamentary elections and not just by majority but it should secure its constitutional majority. There is no alternative to this, because otherwise it has to cooperate in the parliament with other political forces and look for a coalition. This option will deprive the current administration of the benefits they currently enjoy.

The Georgian opposition meanwhile expresses its concern that this type of victory for the ruling power can be made possible through manipulation in the elections process. The negotiations concerning improvement of the elections environment conducted between the ruling party and a group of opposition parties was a long, drawn out affair. Eventually only two of the 8 opposition entities agreed to the slight modifications suggested by the ruling majority. This document envisages an increase in the number of MPs by 40 members.

Many of the non-compliant opposition parties think that these parties agreeing to the collaboration with the National Movement were bribed and were promised certain representation in the parliament. Some opposition members are convinced that the elections will therefore be manipulated. Analyst Irakli Sesiashvili for instance thinks that the current majority thinks that to safeguard its victory the parliamentary elections will be fixed. According to Sesiashvili everything, including moving the parliament to Kutaisi, is being done to secure their comprehensive victory. Some independent analysts also think that the ruling administration has started indirectly getting ready for the parliamentary elections and is taking many steps in this direction. Dispersing brutally the radical opposition rallies on May 26, ignoring the Georgian Orthodox Church's request to discuss the new religion law before its adoption and now arresting photographers and thus attacking media indirectly are all, they believe, part of this process. All these measures are preventive steps to secure victory in the elections.

The ruling power is getting ready for another crisis and it needs an obedient society, thinks Ramaz Sakvarelidze. Independent analysts think that now everything depends on the people and how active and determined they will or will not be in seeking change.