Between elections and revolution

Georgia is approaching some very tough times – the elections in 2012 and 2013. It is becoming more and more evident that the so called Rose Revolution administration is not prepared to give up power and will be attempting to preserve it using any possible means. It is also becoming evident that President Saakashvili will try to retain his power either as a Prime Minister or Parliament chair. On the other hand, all forms of the opposition are against such developments, stating that the people will not tolerate the National Movement as a leader of the country. However, how all these possible developments will take place is not yet clear.

At the moment, the activity of some of the opposition which targets street protests and a so called peaceful revolution has been increasing. Rather often they draw parallels between the situation in the Arab world and that of Georgia. Speculation is intensifying about these developments particularly after the negotiations between the ruling party and 8 opposition parties came to deadlock. The opposition eight suspended the negotiations until the ruling authorities express their genuine goodwill to sit at the negotiations table for the improvement of the elections environment. Both sides blame each other in frustrating the negotiations but whoever is to blame, the process has been stopped.

Different polls by news agencies and some organizations have been carried out, most of which were not professionally done but the answer in those polls was rather skeptical concerning the chances of achieving some viable results through the negotiations on the elections issue. However, the majority thinks that negotiations are a better way of changing the administration. Overall the mood among the population is one of uncertainty and a feeling of general frustration with both the ruling power and the opposition. People are confused – on one hand the ruling administration claims to conduct the elections fairly, justly and transparently, on the other hand it refuses to introduce biometric voting IDs and take some adequate steps. This gives more favorable chances to those opposition groups who are actively encouraging the population to have street rallies and protests in general. So, once again Georgia stands in front of a dilemma: how many people can the opposition mobilize to come out into the streets and protest? If their number is particularly high, the country might face unrest, however the ruling administration is confident that the opposition does not have popular support, and therefore is not concerned.