Ivanishvili changes the scene of Georgian politics

Businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili’s recent decision to enter politics has created a headache for the ruling authorities. So far the leading force dominating Georgia was the National Movement with a few, fragmented and disorganized opposition entities. But this equilibrium suddenly collapsed and the 'smooth' road map which had been drawn by the authorities for the country immediately became a dead end. Parties began to regroup, sometimes frantically, and new ones appeared.

Saakashvili and his team have managed over time to resist several crisis periods starting since 2007–maintaining a rather unsteady governance with its highs and lows. Of course the biggest challenge was the November 2007 resignation of President Saakashvili, the new presidential elections and the following parliamentary elections. Another serious challenge was August 2008 when Georgia’s entire statehood was at stake in an armed conflict. In that situation Western support played a decisive role. The next year, 2009, also saw the rise of aggressive opposition powers which lasted for nearly 3 months with demonstrations in the streets. In 2011 the ruling power managed to survive protest rallies supporting the former Chair of the Parliament, Nino Burjanadze. In spite of these challenges, the ruling party managed to lead the country in the direction mapped out. Until recently everything seemed to be under control. Several opposition parties agreed to participate in the election code amendment scenario and there was visible reconciliation on the ground. The ruling party even managed to introduce changes to the Constitution which would enable the current president to become Prime Minister when his second term expires in 2013.

The opposition parties began to be disorganized and fragmented, some of them even cooperating with the ruling powers. Citizens' trust and confidence towards opposition groups diminished; the public was frustrated, powerful forces seemed to be so solidly in place that there was little appetite to support the disjointed opposition parties. Under the circumstances nobody doubted that the 2012 parliamentary elections and the 2013 presidential ones would continue along the road mapped out by the ruling National Movement. The only unknown was who would be nominated as candidate for President when Saakashvili steps down. Rumor and speculation increasingly suggested Putin’s scenario happening in Georgia too.

With this political scene as a background, Ivanishvili’s appearance on the stage was like an explosion--immediately changing the situation from east to west Georgia. A motivation for hope appeared, after waiting so long. Frustration and disappointment changed to cautious optimism as the weeks went by. Optimism became a force mobilizing formerly passive segments of the population that had never felt like participating in the street or at social rallies. Silently hopeful, these citizens have increased their support for change.

Ivanishvili’s image has already transformed from dull and lackluster to a charismatic 'wise leader'. Since regaining independence after Perestroika, Georgians have systematically followed charismatic leaders--Zviad Gamsakhurdia, Eduard Shevardnadze, Mikheil Saakashvili all received the overpowering support of the majority sweeping them into power. Georgians tend to create a 'united vision' for the leadership of their country when it becomes clear that political change is necessary. Thus Ivanishvili's coming to politics has now created this euphoric mood. An increasing number of Georgians believe this new leader will arrive to govern, bring wealth and welfare to the country.

Analysts however, warn that such enthusiasm could be very naive. The current leadership is not going to easily give up its position, to be hurried off the stage or disappear easily. The National Movement is actively fighting back and taking all measures not to allow the newcomer center stage. The State-subordinated media continues disseminating anti-Ivanishvili propaganda, most of them insisting he is a "Russian project" and trying to persuade the population that his coming to power would return Georgia into the Russian orbit with that country's well-known dreams of reviving the Soviet Union.

Ivanishvili is meanwhile methodically paving his way forward on a new roadmap. He is cultivating his image, though this is not difficult--for many years he has been supporting his fellow Georgians by constructing and renovating churches, theatres, schools and hospitals; supporting culture, actors, scholars, artists and many others, while remaining in the shadows-- not publicizing his activities. Around $1 bln have been donated by Ivanishvili to such activities, a significant amount of 'social capital'.

The ruling authorities continue to repeat that no snap parliamentary elections are envisaged, so officially around one year is left before the planned elections. This is enough time for Ivanishvili to consolidate his political power and it is enough time for the ruling party to establish a defensive strategy to maintain its power. The major role, of course, belongs to the people of Georgia.

Many Georgians have signed petitions demanding that the authorities return Ivanishvili and his wife's Georgian citizenship that was taken away from them when he publicly announced his involvement in politics. Several thousand people have opened bank accounts in Ivanishvili's Cartu Bank to show their support, after the Government expropriated a large sum from the Bank's armored car. Do these acts of public support mean anything? It is premature to draw conclusions--the final decision will be taken at the polling stations during parliamentary elections next fall.