The Significance of the Protests in Tskhinvali

The presidential elections in the unrecognized separatist region of Tskhinvali or South Ossetia were held with surprises - not only for Moscow who controls the situation there or Tbilisi who does not recognize the elections as legal, but even for the participants of the events. The first round of voting did not reveal a winner – that is, a person who gains 51% of the votes. Two contestants appeared as leaders however. One was Russian supported Anatoly Bibilov and another a local teacher Alla Jioeva. The latter was a surprise, because much of the Ossetian population did not consider her a real leader. Even before the second round then, there was the straightforward belief that Russian favorite Bibilov would win. It was to everyone's great surprise then, when Jioeva defeated the Russian backed candidate with 56% of the vote in the second round runoff last Sunday.

But the events did not finish at this. Bibilov is supported locally by the acting president Eduard Kokoity whose term has already expired. Bibilov applied to the Supreme Court of Tskhinvali where the chairman of the court, a close relative of Kokoity, took the decision to annul the results of the elections and to disqualify Jioeva from participating in another round in March 25, 2012. Events still did not come to an end however. On the contrary, Jioeva supporters came out onto the streets and for around a week already the region has been paralyzed by protests. Jioeva demands recognition of her victory and it looks like nothing is going to stop her and her supporters from pursuing this goal. The territory of South Ossetia has around 35,000 people living in it. Apart from that 4,000 Russian soldiers are deployed there and around a thousand Russian border guards. During the Russian invasion of this territory in 2008, almost the entire ethnic Georgian population was cleansed and just few of them are left. This bout of ethnic cleansing which was conducted by Russia and local separatist militias has been recognized by international organizations. Thanks to the efforts of its patron in Moscow the region declared its independence and gained recognition from a range of marginal regimes such as Nicaragua, Venezuela, Nauru and Vanuatu. It follows that Russia now wants to prove to the world that this puppet entity is indeed a democratic country. President Kokoity followed his legal obligations and agreed to step down rather than stay on for a third term. Eleven candidates participated in the so called elections which brought so unexpected results. Yet, in striving to appear democratic, events this week appear to have got out of hand for the Kremlin.

There are different questions concerning the current situation in the region. Why did the Kremlin prefer Bibilov to Jioeva? Both are Russian citizens, both claim utmost loyalty to the Kremlin and definitely both will follow Moscow’s dictate after becoming president. Maybe Moscow wants to control the money which is flowing into the region for creating a military infrastructure and a base for Russian soldiers there and Bibilov was preferred for this goal. As is said, Moscow has already spent more than Euro 500 mln in the region. But a big part of this money has most likely ended up in the big pockets of Kokoity and his clan. Presumably some of this money returned to the pockets of Kremlin officials as well. Some analysts think that the confrontation is between two clans. Bibilov is supported by current president Kokoity because he does not want a newcomer to appear as president and begin investigating all the violations and crimes committed by Kokoity and his clan.

It's too early to suggest that Georgia's position has been tangibly strengthened by the turmoil in Tskhinvali. Yet, the machinations in the region give grounds to the claim that Georgia should be patient and wait for its separatist entities to realise that life in the Russian embrace may be far from expectations when independence was recognized. Quiet voices in the region now express sympathy for Georgia's position. The fact that Russia is pressuring and disregarding the decision of the local population is evident. Anti-Russian sentiment in the region is on the rise.