Georgia and possible complications in Iran

Developments between Iran and the USA are currently the hot topic being discussed by the world’s media. It is clear that whatever comes Georgia will not be able to remain neutral towards the situation in the region. Iran is Georgia’s neighbour and any kind of further deterioration of the situation will influence Georgia either directly or indirectly. Georgian politicians and analysts are attentively following developments in the situation. According to western opinion Iran cannot prove to the international community that it is not working on the production of nuclear weaponry. Therefore international organizations have imposed sanctions against Iran. As a result the threat of possible confrontation between it and the West is ever increasing. There are two red lines which the United States has drawn up as margins for Iran. The first is that the USA will not allow Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz as it is a major route for transporting oil worldwide. The second is not allowing Iran to produce its own nuclear weapon.

So far Georgian leadership has not made an official statement on the situation. It is understandable as Georgia has good relations with its neighbour Iran but at the same time the USA is Georgia’s major strategic partner. Of course Georgia is not interested at all in any kind of military confrontation in the region, as it would be very difficult to forecast the outcome of any conflict if unleashed. Opposition representatives are predicting that Georgia will support the USA in any circumstances and if the US asks it would even allow it to deploy its military contingent on its territory. But this creates the threat that Georgia might become a target for Iranian missiles. There are even speculations that the current process of Saakashvili opening many small hospitals around the country is in reality a cover for an American project which envisages using these hospitals in the event of military mobilization in the region. We repeat however that these are just rumours.

Some analysts have highlighted yet another possibility. As it is known Georgia and Iran have a visa free regime between the countries, so in the event of military conflict a large number of refugees might try to enter Georgia which would definitely be a very serious problem for the small country. There is yet another potential threat, this time coming from the North, as Russia would try to reinforce its position in the South Caucasus and could demand that Georgia allow the transit of its military cargo to the Russian military base located in Armenia. It is clear that Russia will be trying to do its best to prevent American proliferation in Georgia, however of course it will not be prepared to directly confront such US moves. Much will depend on the way things develop in Iran. If conflict does arise and if it only lasts a short while then this will give the advantage to the US and disadvantage to Russia, but what if it continues for a longer period of time?

Georgian analysts also think that Saakashvili and his team will almost certainly use any potential conflict to their advantage. So in that light a crisis in Iran would definitely influence Georgia’s domestic as well as foreign politics.