“Kavkaz 2012” becomes more complicated

The Russian Defence Ministry is preparing for its extensive military training exercises “Kavkaz 2012”, Russian newspaper “Nezavisimaya Gazeta” reports. According to the article, unlike previous military exercises, Kavkaz 2012 will be more large-scale and closer to existing military-political realities.

The manoeuvres scheduled for autumn, September supposedly, will be conducted in the Southern part of the Russian Federation and Armenia, including in the occupied regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

According to military experts, such widespread military preparation is related to the possible conflict of the US and other states with Iran, as well as other possible conflicts in the Caspian region and South Caucasus.

Military exercises with a similar title have previously been conducted. In July 2008 the Russian army conducted “Kavkaz 2008” trainings, near the borders of Georgia, close to Tskhinvali region (so called South Ossetia). In 2008 such exercises ended with the military intervention and further occupation of the Georgian regions.

Military analyst Irakli Sesiashvili considers these exercises to be Russia’s political ambitions rather than just military trainings. “Indeed such trainings have first of all political motives, since it is no secret that Russia wants to spread its influence over the South Caucasus region. Moreover, it is also a warning sign for Azerbaijan, since the Russian Federation is Armenian’s security guarantor,” Sesiashvili told The Messenger.

According to him, these trainings could also be related to the possible war in Iran. Recently Russian officials have not been excluding the possibility of Russia’s support for Iran in any potential conflict with the country.