NDI Survey: UNM ahead, but opposition skeptical

The National Democratic Institute (NDI) released the results of a public opinion Survey designed to measure Georgian voters’ attitudes toward the parliamentary elections expected to take place on October 1.

The survey has revealed that if the elections were held tomorrow, 37 percent of likely voters would vote for the United National Movement (UNM); on the same question to which party they would vote if the parliamentary elections are held tomorrow, 22 percent said "don’t know"; 21 percent refused to answer; 12 percent chose Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream Coalition; 3 percent said “no party”; 3 percent said the Christian Democratic Movement (CDM); and 2 percent named other opposition parties.

Due to the large number of prospective voters who are undecided and those who refuse to answer, NDI has released party crosstab information in an effort to increase the understanding regarding the priorities and perspectives of these groups of voters. A crosstab shows the relationship between two questions, such as “future parliamentary” vote compared with “in which direction Georgia is going.”

Luis Navarro, NDI’s country director in Georgia, said that “based on party crosstab information, where answers to issues are cross-referenced with parliamentary election choices, the undecided voters and the voters who refused to answer, occupy the center between the polarized bases of support between the UNM and the Georgian Dream."

Based on the survey, a large section of Georgian citizens believe that Georgia is on the right course, and is a democratic state. However, many feel there is still room for further development. According to the survey, government representatives were more liked than the oppositional figures.

Through the survey, Prime Minister of Georgia, Vano Merabishvili) enjoys a better rating (62% approve) than does President Mikheil Saakashvili (61% approve). Coalition leader, Bidzina Ivanishvili, is liked by 37% of the survey's respondents.

The outcomes of the NDI survey are an “additional responsibility” for the United National Movement. According UNM spokesperson, Chiora Taktakishvili, the survey's outcomes encourage the ruling party to do more and more for the welfare of Georgian citizens. “We will do our best to fulfill our aim providing more benefits to the people and solve all the problems that are painful for [many] Georgians,” Taktakishvili mentioned.

The Georgian Dream coalition however does not place much trust or faith in the NDI survey. Head of the coalition, Bidzina Ivanishvili recently stated that NDI is not a professional organization and it has never conducted any survey in the United States. The coalition leader also stated that the questions asked by NDI were formulated inappropriately.

“We partially trust the organization but we have questions concerning its procedures,” Ivanishvili said.

Chair of the Elections and Political Technologies Research Centre, Kakha Kakhishvili states that the survey does not reflect reality.

According to him, due to the political environment in the country, people are not sincere.

“NDI decreased the rating of the United National Movement to 37% in order to increase people’s trust in the organization. On the other hand, the survey emphasizes that the UNM has twice the support of all other political parties. Questioning people in the street is not comfortable and people avoid naming the political party they really support. It is better for people to name the UNM and have no problems than to name some other and face some job related problems,” Kakhishvili reasoned.

Political analyst Ramaz Sakvarelidze has never trusted the NDI polls. According to him, the respondents do not trust in the organization, as there are a lot of “don’t know” or refusals to the questions. “When even the respondents do not trust in NDI, how should I?”