Abkhazia's De Facto Leader's Statement on Russian Military Base Sparks Concern in Georgia
By Malkhaz Matsaberidze
Monday, October 30, 2023
The de facto leader of occupied Abkhazia, Aslan Bzhania, said in an interview given to 'Izvestia' newspaper on October 5, about the signing of the agreement on the Russian military-marine base in Ochamchire. This statement received a great response in Georgian analytical circles and various opinions were expressed regarding the created reality and future perspectives. The authorities condemned Russia's actions, while the opposition spoke about the crisis of the Georgian Dream policy and the increased threats to the country.
The port of Ochamchire, which was created during the Soviet period in the mid-1930s, fell directly into the hands of Russia after the 2008 Russian-Georgian war. The announcement about the creation of a military base there was made back in 2009, the fairway was deepened to 9 metres, after which water vessels up to 10 thousand tons can enter Ochamchire.
A large part of the ships of the Russian Black Sea military fleet fit in this scale, but in order to transform it into a full-fledged military base, serious work needs to be done in Ochamchire. Small Russian warships are still stationed in Ochamchire today, and the application to create a naval base in Ochamchire was first discussed in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Due to the Ukrainian strikes, Sevastopol is no longer safe for the Russian fleet, and part of the ships have already been transferred to Feodosia and Novorossiysk. These points are also accessible for Ukrainian strikes, as for Ochamchire, it is not less than 620 kilometres away from the Ukrainian front in a direct line, it is not accessible to the cruise missiles currently in the hands of Ukraine.
But this does not mean that Ukraine will not be able to attack it if Ukraine is attacked from there or from its ships. According to the analysts, it turns out that the opening of the "second front" is already becoming a reality in Georgia, which Georgian Dream talked about after the Russian attack on Ukraine and claimed that there was a "global war party" in the West, which demanded the Georgian government to start a war against Russia in support of Ukraine.
In fact, it turned out that not the West, but Russia is going to involve Georgia in the war against Ukraine. Although the territory of Abkhazia is occupied by Russia, Georgia is responsible for it. According to the opposition, the mentioned action of Russia is an attempt to bring war to Georgia.
In the statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia, official Tbilisi was concerned and assessed Moscow's actions as "an attempt to legitimize the illegal occupation". Prime Minister Irakli Gharibashvili condemned the mentioned action of Moscow and said that "this is a continuation of the occupation".
The opposition deemed it crucial to issue a more stringent statement and address this matter in parliament, whereas the Georgian Dream saw it as unnecessary. In the opposition, they talked about the complete collapse of the policy pursued by the Georgian Dream towards Russia. The essence of this policy is considered to be 'non-irritation' of Russia. After coming to power, Georgian Dream deepened economic ties with Russia, did not join the sanctions imposed against Russia, restored flights with Russia, allowed more than one hundred thousand Russian migrants into the country, effectively distanced itself from the West.
This was followed by the praise of Georgia's 'pragmatic policy' by Russian politicians, but Moscow has not changed it, but is expanding and deepening its occupation of Georgian territories. Russia continues and will continue to encroach on the interests of Georgia in pursuit of its imperial interests. Against this background, the statements that it will be possible to end the occupation by making concessions towards Russia and pursuing a 'smart' policy look weak and ridiculous.
On the contrary, such a policy is only followed by the expansion of the occupation and the announcement of the creation of a Russian naval base in Ochamchire. In parallel with the application for the creation of a Russian base, representatives of the proxy regime of Abkhazia talked about the desire to join Abkhazia with the Russia-Belarus alliance state.
In addition to the exclusion of part of its ships from Ukrainian strikes, other reasons for the announcement of the establishment of a naval base in Ochamchire were also mentioned. One of these reasons is to reassure the separatist regime of Sokhumi after the events in Nagorno-Karabakh that Moscow is not going to leave Abkhazia and will not allow Georgia's territorial integrity to be restored.
The creation of the base is also a sign that Russia is not going to leave the South Caucasus, in the conditions where Russia's positions in Azerbaijan and Armenia have weakened dramatically. Moscow wants to show the world that it maintains its positions in the South Caucasus and the Black Sea region.
They also talked about the threat that the Ochamchire military base could pose to Georgia's transit potential. Ochamchire is about 35 kilometres away from Anaklia, and in Anaklia, Georgia is planning to build a deep-water port. The naval base will scare potential investors. Today, only a Chinese company has expressed its desire to build a port in Anaklia, and the Chinese should not be afraid of the Russian military neighbourhood.
The creation of a military-naval base in Ochamchire, of course, increases the military threats facing Georgia, but this step of Moscow should be considered first of all in the context of the crisis of the policy towards Russia. By making concessions with Russia, Georgia will not be able to ensure its security, and even more so, it will not be able to make any progress towards ending the occupation, on the contrary.