Georgian Dream's Political Manoeuvres: Claiming Credit for EU Candidate Status Amidst Electoral Tensions

By Malkhaz Matsaberidze

Tuesday, January 16, 2024

After receiving the candidate status for EU membership, the main topic for Georgian politics has become who gets the credit for it and how the political forces before the elections will use this in the future.

The Georgian Dream claims the status as its merit and once again announces the 4th 'convincing victory' in the upcoming elections. The opposition considers getting the status a merit of the people and considers it possible to fulfil the 9 requirements named by the European Union only in case of a change of government.

The ruling party had planned a ceremonial celebration but as it turned out, it was only a celebration of the Georgian Dream. Neither the representatives of the opposition, some of whom came to the mentioned celebration, nor President Zurabishvili, who in the role of an ordinary citizen was watching the speakers on stage, were allowed to the microphone.

The leaders of the Georgian Dream then noted that it was planned that way - the president and the opposition did not deserve to speak, because they tried to prevent Georgia from being granted candidate status. The Georgian Dream announced the status as its merit and thanked Bidzina Ivanishvili for setting Georgia on the road to democracy in 2012.

Not at the celebration, but two days later, Bidzina Ivanishvili also appeared at the anniversary of the late Ramaz Chkhikvadze, a famousGeorgian actor. Ivanishvili had disappeared from public space in the last two years and his appearance was preceded by a praise campaign from the Georgian Dream.

During the day, Gharibashvili announced all the achievements of the country, including the candidate status, as the merit of Ivanishvili, and at the end of the day, Ivanishvili appeared. Journalists were not allowed to visit him and he did not say anything, although his sudden appearance revived the idea that Ivanishvili is going to return to politics. And a couple of weeks later, he did announce his return as a party Chair and an advisor, promising to "bring the country to the final victory" by 2030.

In the past, Ivanishvili's return to politics was often connected with the critical periods of the Georgian Dream, when it was close to defeat.

The pre-election positions of the ruling party are not as solid as they try to present and they're talking about obtaining a constitutional majority in the next parliament. The upcoming elections will be held entirely by the proportional system, and if the electoral threshold is reduced to 2%, pro-Western democratic parties will form the majority. That's why the Georgian Dream is so adamant to maintain the 5% threshold.

The opposition has not been able to unite. According to today's pre-election surveys, only the UNM is capable of overcoming the 5% barrier, but a big split recently occurred in this party. Some opposition parties have even found a new "victory formula" - if three (or four) opposition parties cross the 5% threshold, the majority will be in the hands of the opposition coalition. To what extent it is possible to achieve this is another matter.

Receiving the candidate status for EU membership also influenced the official rhetoric of the Georgian Dream. They no longer criticise European parliamentarians, and no one claims that Georgia will receive the candidate status only if it "engages in war" against Russia, and they no longer talk about the "global war party".

In the upcoming election campaign, the Georgian Dream will try to claim the status of a candidate entirely on its merits and declares that it has already started working to fulfil the 9 reservations of the European Union. The opposition claims that the government will not fulfil the reservations of the European Union and that the government needs to be changed in the next elections, while the coalition of pro-Western political parties that came to power will fulfil these reservations of the European Union in a few months.

As for the actual policy of the Georgian Dream, it has not changed much. Criticism from the opposition side followed the first decision of the Georgian government as a candidate for EU membership. Georgia did not join the European Union's decision to extend the "Magnitsky List".

The sanctions lasted for three years. Among the signatories are Georgia's neighbours - Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The anti-Western campaign continues. Alt-info's videos of several individuals burning EU flags have been circulating on social media. The opposition sees the Georgian Dream behind this and they also point out that Russia will definitely strengthen its anti-Western actions in Georgia before the elections.

The Georgian Dream faced serious warnings and criticism. The Venice Commission criticised Georgian Dream's amendments to the electoral code, which fail to ensure a consensus-based political process, and a new anti-corruption bureau run by the prime minister.

Xavier Colomina, the special representative of the NATO Secretary General, was in Georgia and spoke with the current leaders of the Georgian government about the importance of the quality of democracy in the upcoming elections and noted that this factor will determine the relationship with NATO. In a word, the Georgian Dream will not get away with imitation reforms and rigged elections.