Why the U.S. Vice President Is Not Visiting Georgia

By Malkhaz Matsaberidze

Tuesday, February 3, 2026

The visit of U.S. Vice President JD Vance to the South Caucasus will be a momentous event. However, according to currently available information, the Vice President's regional tour does not include a visit to Georgia.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance will visit Armenia and Azerbaijan in February 2026. President Donald Trump posted information about this on social media on January 24. The purpose of the visit is to support peace efforts in the South Caucasus and to strengthen the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) project. The visit follows the peace agreement signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan in August 2025 with U.S. mediation. The visit's agenda includes strengthening the strategic partnership with Azerbaijan and the issue of supplying American defensive equipment (for example, body armor and boats), as well as cooperation with Armenia in the field of peaceful use of nuclear energy. The agenda of the visit is to strengthen the strategic partnership with Azerbaijan and address the issue of supplying American defensive equipment (such as body armor and patrol boats). With Armenia, the focus is on cooperation in the field of peaceful use of nuclear energy. Additionally, the visit provides for the promotion of new business deals for American semiconductor manufacturers in the region.

JD Vance's decision to bypass Tbilisi during his regional tour is a clear political signal sent from Washington. By the beginning of 2026, the relationship between the U.S. administration and the Georgian government had reached a point where a visit was deemed simply "inappropriate."

First and foremost, this is a manifestation of the reassessment of priorities (pragmatism): the Trump administration and Vance personally rely on the principle in foreign policy: "invest where there are results." Armenia and Azerbaijan have shown readiness to sign the American peace plan and engage in the TRIPP project. Georgia, meanwhile, from Washington's perspective, is at this stage more occupied with internal political confrontation and settling relations with Russia than with offering new strategic initiatives.

Bypassing Georgia is a diplomatic "demarche"-the failure to carry out a visit is often as strong a message as the visit itself. This is a message to Tbilisi-a demonstration that Georgia is no longer the U.S. "favorite" in the region. Washington is demonstrating that if a country aligns with the Russian orbit, it forfeits high-level American support and economic benefits.

The TRIPP project is essentially a competitor to Georgia's transit route. Vance's visit only to Yerevan and Baku emphasizes that the activation of this new corridor is now the main priority for the U.S. Including Georgia in this tour might have been perceived as support for the status quo, where Tbilisi holds a transit monopoly-a setup that no longer fits into Washington's new plans.

In Washington, there is a lack of trust toward Georgia's current course. The sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Georgian high-ranking officials, or the expectation of them, create a backdrop where the Vice President's arrival and official meetings would be "awkward." Vance is going where American business (semiconductors, energy) will be protected. The uncertain legal environment in Georgia and Russia's growing influence are perceived as a threat to American investors at this stage.

If Tbilisi manages to convince Washington that it is ready to be a Western extension of the TRIPP project rather than a conduit for Russian interests, it is possible that relations could be renewed in the future.

JD Vance's decision not to include Georgia in his February 2026 tour proved to be the equivalent of a political earthquake in Tbilisi. The government and the opposition explain this fact in radically different ways:

The ruling team is trying to present the skipping of the visit not as isolation, but as an ordinary working process. Government representatives state that the U.S. administration has its own priorities, and the Vice President's not visiting does not mean the end of the partnership. According to their narrative, the U.S. interest in Armenia-Azerbaijan is caused by the conflict-ridden past there, while in Georgia, there is "peace and stability," which requires less urgent intervention.

Hints are also being made that Georgia does not intend to "stand on one leg" and settle relations with Washington at the expense of sacrificing its own interests (for example, economic ties with Russia).

For the opposition spectrum, this fact means a "geopolitical disaster" and is proof that the country no longer exists on the Western map: the opposition says that by Vance bypassing Georgia, Washington has finally delivered a diagnosis of the Ivanishvili government-it is no longer perceived as a reliable partner. Particular emphasis is placed on the TRIPP project. The opposition states that due to the government's playing around with Russia, Georgia has lost the chance to be part of the American billions, which will lead us into an economic impasse. The opposition claims that this is the fulfillment of Ivanishvili's dream-Georgia has been left without high-level Western visits, which opens the way for Russia to fully annex the country.

How does this reflect on public sentiment? Nervousness is observed in business circles. The diversion of American investments elsewhere (to Armenia and Azerbaijan) means that the Georgian economy could end up in stagnation. Public sentiment is polarized: government loyalists frame the exclusion as a matter of sovereignty, asserting that Georgia is not a US puppet. Meanwhile, the pro-Western electorate feels a sense of betrayal, dreading a future where Georgia is isolated behind a modern-day Iron Curtain. While the government maintains "sovereign calm," the opposition is trying to turn this fact into a pre-election or protest spark, because on the new map of the region (where Armenia and Azerbaijan are at the center of the American peace), Georgia has found itself in an "offside" position for the first time.

Presumably, the Georgian government will maintain its "calm"-it will wait for the parliamentary elections in Armenia, in the hope that Russian rule will be restored in Armenia. This is a very precise and strategic calculation, which is considered the main part of "Georgian Dream's" "survival plan" in the political context of 2026. For them, the revenge of pro-Russian forces in Armenia is not only the neighbor's choice, but the legitimation of their own course and a guarantee of survival.

The success of TRIPP (American control over Armenia) makes Georgia's isolation final. If a pro-Russian government comes to power in Armenia through elections, the first step will be to review or block the TRIPP agreement, which will drive American investments out of the region. Georgia will once again become the only (albeit Russia-controlled) corridor, which will allow the current Georgian government to start "leveraging" with the West again.

If Armenia returns to the Russian orbit, a unified bloc will be created in the region, the Western experiment in the Caucasus will fail, and the Dream's "cautious policy" will be seen as the only correct path. For the Kremlin, the elections in Armenia represent a chance to restore its military and political hegemony. If Armenia once again relies on Russian bases and security guarantees, the Georgian government will use this as an argument that "we should not pin our hopes on NATO and the West."

"Georgian Dream" is truly going all-in, expecting that Russia will be able to maintain its hold on Armenia. This is a state of geopolitical waiting, where Georgia's fate is being decided at the Armenian ballot boxes.

If the Armenian elections confirm the stability of the Western course and the TRIPP project becomes irreversible, Georgia will remain the only point where Russia has real influence, which will make it "toxic" for the West. The Georgian voter will see that Armenia received American billions, security, and technologies, while Georgia remained in Russian stagnation. This will be a massive blow to the "Georgian Dream's" rating.