Georgian Opposition Parties Face Dilemmas
By Malkhaz Matsaberidze
Wednesday, May 28, 2025
The pro-Western opposition, under threat of elimination from the ruling party Georgian Dream, is currently facing two major dilemmas: how to respond to the Tsulukiani-led parliamentary commission, and whether to participate in the upcoming local self-government elections scheduled for the fall. On both issues, the opposition remains divided.
The local elections are set to take place in the fall, although no exact date has been set yet. Whether pro-Western opposition parties will participate remains a topic of debate. Georgian Dream had planned to ban these pro-Western parties - labeled collectively as the "United National Movement coalition" - and even passed a law to that effect. However, they postponed its enforcement until after the elections. The plan is to let the opposition participate one final time, expecting voters to reject them, allowing Georgian Dream to win a decisive victory. Afterward, they intend to petition the Constitutional Court to ban these parties. This is their calculation.
Some political groups under threat of being banned, and who have already refused to take seats in the current parliament, have also declared a firm boycott of the local elections. These include the "Coalition for Changes" (Melia-Gvaramia bloc) and the United National Movement. In contrast, Giorgi Gakharia's party appears to be preparing to participate. The party Lelo has yet to make its stance clear, but may also lean toward participation.
The position of those who do intend to run is relatively straightforward: all elections are opportunities to be used. Some analysts argue that if the opposition unites, it has a real chance to win the mayoral race in Tbilisi and replace Kakha Kaladze with an opposition figure.
Those politicians who support a boycott don't buy this argument. Their reasoning is also clear: they refused to enter parliament due to alleged election fraud - why should they now legitimize local elections run by the same ruling party, which already claims it will win "decisively"? Why play by Georgian Dream's rules?
But the boycott won't just mean staying home on election day. Those in favor of it are working on an active strategy, aiming to expose Georgian Dream's manipulation and potentially launch a parallel digital plebiscite. Still, the elections are months away, and the fast pace of events could demand a change in plans.
Some opposition figures might not even make it to election day - they could end up in prison. The main reason: a parliamentary commission led by Tea Tsulukiani. The commission's original mandate was to investigate crimes committed during Saakashvili's rule, but its scope has since expanded to the present day.
Opposition figures summoned by Tsulukiani's commission face a serious dilemma. Since they have declared the 2024-elected parliament illegitimate, they don't recognize the commission either. Another argument: parliamentary inquiry commissions must include opposition MPs - yet Tsulukiani's commission does not.
Those who defy a summons from the commission risk criminal charges and imprisonment. Giorgi Gakharia did appear and answered questions for several hours. Both he and the commission claimed victory afterward.
In contrast, Lelo leaders Mamuka Khazaradze and Badri Japaridze refused to appear but posted bail to avoid jail - though trials are ongoing and could lead to imprisonment. Former Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili and Zurab Japaridze, leader of Girchi - More Freedom, both refused to appear or post bail and have been arrested.
Some, like Giorgi Vashadze, are considering posting bail as a pragmatic way to continue political work, though others see this as an unconvincing compromise and are ready to go to jail rather than cooperate with what they view as an illegitimate process.
There is a belief that Georgian Dream would not dare mass arrests of opposition figures, fearing domestic and international backlash. But if the party proceeds with arrests via the Tsulukiani commission, it would signal a shift toward "Belarusification" of Georgia - where opposition leaders are either jailed or exiled.
Through its current policies, Georgian Dream is trying to project confidence and indifference toward both protests and existing or potential Western sanctions. Yet, many experts argue this is a facade. The party has failed to establish a working relationship with the Biden administration - something Bidzina Ivanishvili had promised and hoped for. An open letter by Irakli Kobakhidze to former President Trump was one such failed attempt to build ties. Meanwhile, the U.S. Congress is expected to pass the MEGOBARI Act, which could bring consequences that Georgian Dream would rather avoid.