Monday, August 6, 2007, #148 (1415)

Tskhinvali de facto authorities are running out of options

Tskhinvali leaders look desperate. The Georgian government is making inroads in South Ossetia, and separatist officials have fewer and fewer roadblocks at their disposal.

Tbilisi's commission to determine South Ossetian status was part of a one-two political punch, beginning with setting up Dmitry Sanakoyev and his alternative administration on Tskhinvali's doorstep. The new state commission includes Ossetian representatives, lending crucial credibility to the project. Secessionist authorities declined a backhanded invitation to sit on the commission, proclaiming that South Ossetia's status-independence-was already determined by pair of questionable referenda.

De facto authorities feel encroached upon, and are lashing out with increasingly bizarre ploys to undermine Tbilisi's efforts. In the last few days, the secessionist administration has announced "indisputable evidence" of Georgian-sponsored terror attacks in South Ossetia.

At a Tskhinvali press conference they rolled out Inal Koliyev, a man they said had infiltrated Georgia's secret service. Koliyev himself stepped forward to list the Georgian plots he was privy too: placing mines near the peacekeepers' headquarters in Tskhinvali, and planning to bust sympathetic figures out of South Ossetian prison.

Presumably, he has retired from undercover work.

South Ossetian spy chief Boris Atoyev warned the city's residents that they're under constant threat from Georgian terrorists. With superb timing, a bomb went off that night in Tskhinvali, fortunately without casualties. Another Georgian provocation, de facto authorities said, carried out by a subversive group they just can't manage to pin down.

De facto South Ossetian president Eduard Kokoity demanded an international investigation into the explosion. That may not help his cause: OSCE observers found no trace of the mines the undercover agent said he personally placed in Tskhinvali on behalf of Georgian masterminds.

All these bombs and spies mean the planned JCC session in Tbilisi is a no-go for his administration, Kokoity said. Because Tbilisi won't guarantee the security of the South Ossetian delegation, he declared, his negotiators won't step foot in the capital.

And so another round of talks is scuttled. Neither Tbilisi nor Tskhinvali are particularly interested in resuscitating the JCC format, and it looks increasingly unlikely that they will. Saakashvili's administration would rather see Sanakoyev supplant Kokoity as an Ossetian representative, something that can't happen within the JCC.

But on the international stage, it's already happening.

By painting themselves as the threatened victims of a bullying Tbilisi, separatist officials avoid having to concede that it's Saakashvili's administration which is working hardest towards peaceful and realistic conflict resolution. Scaremongering is a tried-and-true method for regimes to justify their existence. And with the Tskhinvali authorities facing increasing marginalization, it's one of the few methods they have left.





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